Image:Instrumental Temperature Record.png

From Global Warming Art

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Description

Map of the distribution of average temperature changes over the 1999-2008 period relative to 1940-1980 means.

This image shows the instrumental record of global average temperatures as compiled by the NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The data set used follows the methodology outlined by Hansen et al. (2006). Following the common practice of the IPCC, the zero on this figure is the mean temperature from 1961-1990.

The uncertainty in the analysis of global temperature is discussed in Foland et al. (2001) and Brohan et al. (2006). They estimate that global averages since ~1950 can be expected to be within ~0.05 °C of reported values with 95% confidence. In the recent period, these uncertainties are driven primarily by considering the potential impact of regions where no temperature record is available. For averages prior to ~1890, the uncertainty reaches ~0.15 °C driven primarily by limited sampling and the effects of changes in sea surface measurement techniques. Uncertainties between 1980 and 1890 are intermediate between these values.

Incorporating such uncertainties, Foland et al. (2001) estimated the global temperature change from 1901 to 2000 as 0.57 ± 0.17 °C, which contributed to the 0.6 ± 0.2 °C estimate reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, [1]). Both estimates are 95% confidence intervals.

Licensing

This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from publicly available data.

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This image is an original work created for Global Warming Art by Robert A. Rohde.

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References

• [abstract] [full text] [DOI] Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade (2006). "Global temperature change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103: 14288-14293. 
• [full text] IPCC (2001a). Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521807670. 
• [abstract] [full text] [DOI] Folland, C.K., N.A. Rayner, S.J. Brown, T.M. Smith, S.S.P. Shen, D.E. Parker, I. Macadam, P.D. Jones, R.N. Jones, N. Nicholls and D.M.H. Sexton (2001). "Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861". Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621-2624. 

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File upload and version history

Click on date to see the file uploaded on that date.

• 03:37, 4 February 2009 . . 800×591 (40,211 bytes)
• 06:56, 3 February 2007 . . 800×597 (35,014 bytes) (switch to new HadCruT3 and update for 2006)
• 00:04, 18 November 2005 . . 525×390 (43,395 bytes)