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Arrhenius.pdf (4413KB, MIME type: application/pdf)
Description
The PDF above contains "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground" by Svante Arrhenius. This paper, published in 1896, is the first to quantify the impact of carbon dioxide on the Earth's greenhouse effect and to suggest that its variations have been an important influence on previous long-term changes in climate. His crude estimate that a doubling of carbon dioxide would result in a ~5 °C warming is larger but not greatly different from the 1.5-4.5 °C now estimated for such a doubling (IPCC 2001).
Combining these calculations with existing work suggesting that the burning of fossil fuels could significantly alter the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Högbom 1894), Arrhenius later became the first person to predict the possibility of man-made global warming. His prediction that significant global warming would take ~3000 years to develop (Arrhenius 1908) is now recognized as a substantial underestimate due in part to his failure to foresee the rapid increases in fossil fuel use during the twentieth century.
Copyright
The text of Svante Arrhenius's paper is believed to be in the public domain as it was published in 1896. This PDF reproduction of that work was prepared by Robert A. Rohde.
References
- Svante Arrhenius (1896). "On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground". Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science (fifth series) 41: 237–275.
- Svante Arrhenius (1908). Das Werden der Welten. Leipzig: Academic Publishing House.
- Högbom (1894). Svensk kemisk Tulskrift, p. 169.
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- 09:36, 11 February 2007 . . 0×0 (4,518,810 bytes)
