Image:Global Warming Predictions.png

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Description

A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century according to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model and scenario has an average warming of 3.0°C
A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century according to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model and scenario has an average warming of 3.0°C
Different carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the 21st century. This is the other key factor leading to uncertainty in climate change predictions.
Different carbon dioxide emission scenarios for the 21st century. This is the other key factor leading to uncertainty in climate change predictions.

This figure shows climate model predictions for global warming under the SRES A2 emissions scenario relative to global average temperatures in 2000. The A2 scenario is characterized by a politically and socially diverse world that exhibits sustained economic growth but does not address the inequities between rich and poor nations, and takes no special actions to combat global warming or environmental change issues. This world in 2100 is characterized by large population (15 billion), high total energy use, and moderate levels of fossil fuel dependency (mostly coal). At the time of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, the A2 scenario was the most well-studied of the SRES scenarios.

The IPCC predicts global temperature change of 1.4-5.8°C due to global warming from 1990-2100 (IPCC 2001a, [1]). As evidenced above (a range of 2.5°C in 2100), much of this uncertainty results from disagreement among climate models, though additional uncertainty comes from different emissions scenarios.

As shown below, climate models routinely predict that land will warm more rapidly than ocean due to it's lower specific heat.

Temperature Increase 2000 to 2100 (°C)
Model Total Land Ocean
CCSR/NIES 4.7 7.0 3.8
CCCma 4.0 5.0 3.6
CSIRO 3.8 4.9 3.4
Hadley Centre 3.7 5.5 3.0
GFDL 3.3 4.2 3.0
MPI-M 3.0 4.6 2.4
NCAR PCM 2.3 3.1 2.0
NCAR CSM 2.2 2.7 2.0
Mean 3.4 4.6 2.9

Models

The model data used above was taken from the IPCC-DDC, and the models are as follows:

Copyright

This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from published data.


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Reference

  • [full text] IPCC (2001a). Houghton, J.T.,Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521807670. 

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