Image:Solar Variation to Temperature Comparison.png

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Description

History of sunspot numbers, used to construct the solar variability curve above.

Summary of the attribution of recent climate change as derived by climate models.

This image show a comparison of the history of temperature variation to the history of solar variation. The black curve show the instrumental temperature record, orange show a history of solar variability based on sunspot numbers, and the gray band indicates the range of proxy temperature reconstructions. In each case, a Gaussian weighted moving average was used to create a decadal average and remove fluctuations on the scale of individual solar cycles.

Following similar methods to ??, ??, the curve for solar variation was simply scaled to match the changes in temperature during the early half of the twentieth century. This is not generally considered to be a plausible relationship. Instead, this is generally considered an upper limit on the amount of temperature variation that could be explained by solar variation.

As indicated, the large range of plausible temperature variations prior to the instrumental record does not place a strong constraint on the impact of solar variability. However, it is plausible that solar variability is a primary source of climate change prior to the industrial revolution.

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This image was produced by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming Art.

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